Inflation in may slowed down in the conditions of exhaustion of the impact of short-term proinflationary factors
In may 2020, annual inflation fell 0.1 percentage points to 3.0%, after rising in March—April. The slowdown was due to the reduction of food inflation. In the previous two months she grew rapidly under the influence of rising public demand for individual food products in the period of transition to the regime of self-isolation, said the information-analytical comments , “the Dynamics of consumer prices”.
So, significantly decreased the annual rate of growth of prices for fruit and vegetables, slowed the rise in the cost of meat and poultry. In the near future to constrain the dynamics of prices for food will be his highest offer, as well as expectations of a good harvest of many crops.
The annual rate of appreciation of non-food items has not changed. Slightly increased annual growth rate of prices for services, returning to the levels of February—March. A higher volatility of price dynamics in services largely reflects the termination of the provision of many of them in terms of restrictive measures, making it difficult to check prices. Restore the usual format of providing services can be expected to reduce the volatility of price dynamics.
The slowdown in annual inflation was observed in many regions of Russia while reducing the regional heterogeneity of price dynamics.
In General, the impact of short-term proinflationary factors largely exhausted. In the near future under the impact of weak demand will continue to decline in the monthly growth rate of consumer prices, which will create conditions for slowing inflation. At the same time until the end of the year the likely increase in annual inflation due to the exit of the calculation of the low values of the second half of 2019. Given current trends it is more likely that the inflation by the end of 2020 will be in the bottom of the forecast range of 3.8–4.8 per cent.
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